Wednesday, January 19, 2022

Do I bet on the Last Hit or the Least Hit?

On the side of most Roulette tables you will see an electronic board that shows the last 20 numbers or sometimes 30 or 40 and their color. These are the most recent hits on this Table and the order in which they hit with the latest hit normally at the top.  

How gamblers use those numbers separates them into two groups.  Last Hitters or Least Hitters.  Least Hitters will look at the numbers and see that 14 of the 20 numbers hit were black and will tend to bet on the Red.  Last Hitters will tend to bet on  whatever the last win was on.

I tend to be on the side of Last Hitters.  I believe in imperfection and if there is an imperfection in the wheel there will be a slight advantage to a certain number or group of numbers on the board.  

Both are believing in the Gamblers Fallacy.  He or she will believe that if ten blacks in a row came up then it must be more likely that a red will come up next.  However the events are not linked.  If the wheel is not rigged the chance of a red or black coming up next is exactly the same.

Also if each roll on the wheel is totally random then my choice or the least hitter's choice doesn't make a difference.  We will win or lose as long as we make a bet.

There are several guarantees when betting on a Roulette wheel.  

1.  The ball will dance around the wheel and land in different pockets.

2.  If you bet multiple times you will win some and lose some.

3.  There will be long runs of certain parts of the board.  For instance the Even may hit ten in a row and at the same time the Red may have hit eight out of ten.  And sometimes the numbers will chop back and forth one even, one odd , back and forth over and over.  

4.  Predicting what will hit is what gamblers do.

5. If you make the perfect bet it will win.  The perfect bet is the bet you put down before last call that hits on this spin.

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